Vladimir Potapov

T

he State Duma and, later, the Federation Council voted to approve the ratification of the Kyoto Protocol to the U.N. Framework Convention on Climate Change, which was signed on behalf of the Russian Federation in New York on March 11, 1999. By now, the Protocol has been ratified by 124 countries, whose combined share in the total emission of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases amounts to 44.2%. The ratification of the Protocol by Russia that accounts for 17.4% will put it in effect.

The ratification was pushed by President Vladimir Putin, who was trying this way to put an end to the long debate between the country’s supporters and opponents of the Kyoto Protocol.
It seems that the Kremlin’s position was dictated by neither ecological nor economic reasons. Experts tend to believe that the decision to join the Protocol was a political move. Many regard it as a kind of Russia’s gift to the European Union, as its response to the successfully completed talks with the EU on the Russian accession to the WTO.
In the opinion of Deputy Foreign Minister Yuri Fedotov, the refusal to ratify the Kyoto Protocol could result in not only political but also economic costs. "The fate of the Kyoto Protocol rests upon Russia", said this official of Russia’s Ministry. "If we rejected the ratification, we would become the ones to blame", he pointed out.
Alexander Bedritsky, the head of RosGidroMet (the Russian State Agency that is responsible for controlling the environment protection), is convinced that Russia only benefits from the ratification of the Protocol, if an adequate strategy to realize it is worked out. In his words, the Protocol implies possibilities of implementing joint projects: RAO UES of Russia and other Russian companies are already moving in this direction. Bedritsky thinks that these joint projects together with foreign companies can bring a double benefit to Russia: they will allow to get funds for improving technologies of industrial production and to reduce harmful emissions.
Russia’s well-known economist, former Minister of Environment and Natural Resources Viktor Danilov-Danilian believes that curbs on emissions are inevitable anyway because of reduction of oil reserves. In his words, the Kyoto Protocol will contribute to lessening Russia’s dependence on the international fuel market. The Russian leadership will be prompted to accomplish the economy’s most important and promising task to develop energy-saving. So far Russia has been witnessing the growth of the GDP energy consumption, while the energy-conversion efficiency is decreasing. In the developed world the reverse is true. It is necessary to force the policy of energy-saving, says Danilov-Danilian. The degree of efficiency at an advanced heat-generating station in many Western countries has already exceeded 50% but in Russia it still averages 36%. This means that Russia spends as much as 1.5 times more fuel per unit of generated electric power. Now there is a chance to start renewing the country’s heat-and-power engineering with the help of saved fuel that could be put on sale.
But not all in Russia feel positive about ratifying the Kyoto Protocol. For example, in its time the Russian Academy of Sciences made a negative conclusion and scientists did not change their opinion despite the decision by both the President and the Federal Assembly. The Academy’s experts believe that the provisions of the document have a discriminatory nature and that the mechanisms of its implementation contain economic risks that are fraught with danger to Russia.
Recognizing the trend towards the global climate change on the planet, Russian scientists stress "the high uncertainty about whether the climate warming is happening only because of anthropogenic effect", i.e. due to man-made emissions. In their opinion, in 10 years a maximum impact of the Kyoto Protocol would be just an insignificant slowdown of rates of carbon dioxide concentration growth. What is more, such an estimate is based on the assumption that the U.S. will also ratify the document. But, as is known, the U.S. has already announced its official refusal to join the Protocol. Proceeding from this fact the Russian Academy of Sciences states the absence of sufficient scientific substantiation of the Kyoto Protocol as well as its practical inefficiency.
Scientists’ serious concern is caused by the high cost of measures proposed by initiators of the Kyoto Protocol so as to stabilize carbon dioxide concentration. By their estimate, "in a hundred years their cost will amount to dozens of trillions of dollars". They think that in case of maintaining the high rates of economic growth Russia may exceed the maximum Protocol-set levels of greenhouse gas emissions (the 1990 levels) already between 2008 and 2010. Thus, the country will have to either limit rates of its economic growth or buy additional quotas on emission of greenhouse gases.
Finally, scientists explain, why the Kyoto Protocol has a discriminatory nature especially with respect to Russia. In particular, they point out that this document does not take into consideration the climatic peculiarities of Russia, the coldest country in the world. On the other hand, it ignores the total volume of the carbon dioxide absorption by Russian forests, which occupy the enormous space.
It is already clear that Russia’s ratification of the Kyoto Protocol will entail additional expenses from the federal budget. Besides, many domestic producers, including metallurgical companies, may suffer significant losses.
Nevertheless, the ‘insufficiently substantiated’, ‘ineffective’ and even ‘discriminatory’ Kyoto Protocol is to be ratified. This is the Kremlin’s clear signal to the West that Russia is intent on remaining a loyal and civilized political player on the international arena and, for the sake of it, the country is even ready to bear certain costs.
By ratifying the Protocol Russia will, in fact, start up the flywheel of its coming into force in all countries, which have joined it earlier. Due to its commitments under the Protocol the European Union has already rushed to adopt new ecological standards. It may turn out that Russia’s industry "does not conform to new requirements of the EU" and the European Union will be tempted to increase the anti-dumping duty for Russian steel companies. It is no accident that in its investment-related memo to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission in connection with the forthcoming issuance of ADRs the Mechel Steel Group even thought that it was necessary to warn potential investors about a possible negative impact of Russia’s ratification of the Kyoto Protocol on the company’s activity.
"It is necessary to realize that this is a political decision, a forced decision", said Andrei Illarionov, the Russian President’s adviser. That is why, in Illarionov’s opinion, appropriate steps should be taken to minimize its consequences.

REFERENCE
The Kyoto Protocol to the U.N. Framework Convention of 1997 on climate change is aimed at reducing emissions of greenhouses gases formed when organic fuel is incinerated (the main one of them is ÑÎ2 but the Convention also covers methane, nitrous oxide, etc.). The Protocol’s concept based on the opinion of scientists, who caution about the danger of coming global warming, was worked out by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) established by the U.N. in 1988.
The Framework Convention has been signed by 201 countries. Out of them 39 states (these are developed countries and countries undergoing the process of transition to a market economy) incorporated in Annex B of the Kyoto Protocol are required to put curbs on emissions of greenhouse gases.
Under the Protocol, in the period from 2008 through 2012 parties, which are listed in Annex B of the Protocol and which have ratified this agreement, take the following commitments with respect to cutting the average annual emission of greenhouse gases as compared with the 1990 base level: countries of Western Europe will reduce emissions by 8%; the U.S., Japan, Canada – by 7%; countries of Eastern Europe – by 6%; Russia – by 0%. The "zero option" for Russia is due to the fact that it has considerably cut its emissions anyway because of the post-restructuring decline of production in the 1990s.
Russia has become the thirty third out of 39 countries listed in Annex B, which have ratified the Protocol, i.e. those, which have committed themselves to limit emissions. About three thirds of the Third World countries have ratified the Protocol but they have not taken any obligations upon themselves – they were not required to. Following the sudden refusal by President Bush to ratify the Protocol in the spring of 2001 (the U.S. accounts for over one third or 36.3% of the world emissions), the implementation of the whole project has entirely depended on the position of Russia, which is responsible for 17.4% of the world emissions of greenhouse gases.
The Kyoto Protocol is to become a norm of the international law after it is ratified by governments of countries that account for no less than 55% of all world emissions of greenhouse gases. This quota has been established with the ratification of the Kyoto Protocol by Russia.