Vladimir Potapov

T

he stability and somewhat increased income of the country’s population can be considered prime favorable result of 2002 in Russia. Certainly, this accomplishment became possible thanks to the realistic budget and tax policies. It is also noteworthy that there has been a growth of the domestic demand for Russian-made goods, thus, reducing the negative impact of external economic conditions.
Commenting on the basic indicators of the county’s economic status the chairman of the Russian State Committee of Statistics Vladimir Sokolin pointed out:
"In 2002 the most important indexes of the Russian economic development essentially maintained their positive dynamics from February on. From January through September last year the GDP volume increased 4.1% against the same period of the preceding year. However, it should be noted that rates of the GDP growth slowed down slightly (In January through September of 2001 the GDP increased 5.3% as compared with the same period of 2000)".
The government also is satisfied with the rates of the GDP growth. In the words of prime minister Mikhail Kasyanov, "Russia looks quite acceptable" in comparison to other countries and the world’s economy as a whole. In 2002 the inflation level fell down by more than 3% (in 2001 it reached 18.6%). This is a positive factor as well.
Altogether, the index of the country’s industrial production last year climbed up 103.7% against 2001. However, the dynamics of the industrial production is not steady as yet. Vladimir Sokolin is drawing attention to the fact that the slowdown of inflation rates takes place in the fourth quarter only and this happens for the third year in a row. "The positive dynamics has been maintained mostly thanks to products of the export-oriented industries", he says. The biggest production growth has been achieved by the fuel industry (6.7%) and non-ferrous metallurgy (7.7%). The production of foodstuff also keeps developing at advanced rates: its growth in the food industry amounted to 6.7%. Growth indicators for other sectors are as follows: it is 2.3% for ferrous metallurgy, 1.2% for the chemical and petrochemical industries and 2.2% for machine-building and metalworking industries.

The chairman of the Russian State Committee of Statistics Vladimir Sokolin

The production volume in the electric-power industry decreased 0.9%. The volume of freight by all kinds of transport remained practically unchanged (100.6%) and amounted to 7, 660,000 tons.
As the international balance of payment proves, in January through October 2002 Russia’s foreign trade turnover increased 6.3% (reaching $136B) against the same period of 2001. Due to foreign economic conditions favorable to Russia because of growing oil prices in the first place, export shipments of goods have been on the increase since the middle of 2002. From January through October 2002 the volume of the country’s exports amounted to $87.5 billion. It imports also rose but reached a significantly smaller amount of $48.5 billion. Machinery, equipment and means of transportation accounted for the major share of the import volume.
The volume of investments in capital assets exceeded the level of 2001 by 2.5%. A considerable share of investments fell on Russia’s fuel-and-energy complex and transport.
According to the data of the Russian State Committee of Statistics, in January through September 2002 the volume of foreign investments made in the non-financial sector of the country’s economy amounted to $12.9 billion, direct investments reaching $2.6 billion.
Analysts note that the level of unemployment in 2002 went down to 7.1% of the able-bodied population. A year earlier the figure was 8.2%. Vladimir Sokolin believes that "the rise in employment and reduction in the ranks of unemployed resulted from the production growth". The number of the unemployed calculated by methods of the International Labor Organization was steadily decreasing since December 2001 and by the end of November 2002 it amounted to 5.1 million people or 7.1% of the able-bodied population (at the end of November 2001 it equaled 6.3 million people or 8.9%). Those officially registered as unemployed, however, amount to 1.2 million people.
The production growth, increase in employment and inflation rates lower than in 2001 contributed to rising standards of living. The population’s income minus obligatory payments after being adjusted to the consumer price index increased 9 % and actual earnings jumped up 17.4%. Also the growth of house-building construction, to 113%, is an indirect indication of improving living conditions in Russia.
The recent census of Russia’s population made demographical concerns more understandable. The preliminary counting of results showed that in the past decade, despite the migration of Russians from republics of the former USSR, the country’s population decreased by 2 million and amounted to 145 million people. Nevertheless, this reduction turned out smaller than initially feared. And the recent news about increasing birth rates gives grounds for optimism. Economists are saying that now, when Russia is coming out of the decade-long economic slump, birth rates may keep growing while death rates will be decreasing.